What I like most about John Key (which is not a lot) is his speeches. He is really quite guileless in letting us know what he thinks. At last week’s Australia-NZ business bunfight Key’s speech showed what a pushover he is on our behalf. The actual transcript ran thus:
Well, I mean, my sense of it is that President Obama is very committed to a very high-level, comprehensive deal. That doesn’t mean that he can ultimately get fast-track authority, or can necessarily enjoy the level of support it would need to pass, but he personally is very committed to it and they are the comments he’s made to me. I think from Australia and New Zealand’s point of view, we can see the enormous economic gains for our countries, providing a good deal is signed. So, we’re certainly of the view that now’s the time to try and complete a deal. If we don’t get that in the first six months of this year, then my guess is it’s going to become more challenging as time goes on, so we are going to push hard, and continue to put pressure on our trade ministers to try and see if it can be resolved. I think it’s possible. Our risks are either in losing some of the counter-parties along the way, or a downgrading of the overall ambition for TPP, but at the moment, everything I’ve seen continues to tell me that a high-level comprehensive deal is still achievable, and achievable this year.
Yes, you got it. Obama suckered Key on the golf course. Photo ops come at a price. FIRST Key concedes that Obama may not get fast track for TPPA, meaning the US Congress can pick it apart – indeed, there is no way the fast track Bill can even get to a vote by November, because Senate Majority Leader Harry Read, who decides the legislative timetable, doesn’t like it and said so.
AND Key concedes that Congress may not approve the TPPA itself when it comes to a vote …
BUT Obama has assured him that he really wants the TPPA.
SO even though Obama can’t deliver on anything he promises – and Congress will demand the US gets more and gives less away (if that’s possible) than team Obama agrees to – Key can still see enormous gains for New Zealand and we should rush to finish the deal as soon as possible. If the ministers can’t agree soon, there is a risk it might not happen. Duhhh!
That’s why there is another secret squirrel meeting of TPPA ministers in Singapore from 22 to 25 February. There has been no formal announcement. The media received an invitation on Monday to register, but were told not to go public. In other words, the governments don’t want a repeat of the embarrassment in December when the media reported the deals that were being made, and Wikileaks managed to publish two documents on what one of the delegations thought about what was going on.
The week before this latest ministerial the officials will convene, at US expense, in the Intercontinental Hotel. The NZ delegation is apparently staying there. Assume around 12 officials are there for the ten day duration, including the ministerial meeting, at the special rate we understand is US$428 a night. And they are flying to Singapore business class. And that Groser will have his own entourage. The taxpayer can kiss goodbye to around $100,000. What could women’s refuge do with that?
Why are they having this meeting? We were told from various quarters there would be no ministerial until they could walk away from it with a deal. That could not happen until the US and Japan reached agreement on autos and ag. There is no such deal.
A second option is that the other 11 ministers are willing to play lapdogs to bolster Obama’s creds and give him something to sign when he tours Asia in April. The message for domestic US consumption is that ‘fast track doesn’t matter’. That is a possible explanation, based on Key’s response, in which case we can expect a sell out.
A third possibility is that the ministers want to advance the work they didn’t get done in December, because the US’s strategy to finesse them into making decisions backfired. Again, that’s possible, but they will be hoha about having more of these meetings without being able to claim victory. But that is the most rational explanation, and this process is political, not rational.
Finally, the cheerleaders may feel the need to rebuild momentum they lost after their December meeting. They know it will slip away further if they don’t meet again soon. The cost will be hard to justify. Chile has a new government that is not a fan of the TPPA. Opposition is mounting everywhere.
That is a real concern for National. The pressure at home has intensified. The leaders and co-leaders of the New Zealand First, Green, Maori and Mana parties all endorsed an open letter by senior legislators from seven countries that was released today, which calls for the publication of the draft text of the Agreement before any final agreement is signed with sufficient time to enable effective legislative scrutiny and public debate.
Other signatories to the open letter include the Vice-President of Peru, the leader and trade spokesperson for Canada’s two main opposition parties, the trade spokesperson for Australia’s Green Party and several former Cabinet ministers from Japan.
Labour didn’t sign. But yesterday, it came off the fence and formally supported release of the TPPA text too. They moved a parliamentary motion: That the House call on the New Zealand Government to publish the text of the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement before any final agreement is signed, with sufficient time to enable effective legislative scrutiny and public debate; either when it is made public by the United States Congress, or not less than 14 days prior to its signing in New Zealand; whichever is the earlier.’ National opposed the motion, so it was unable to be read out.
The motion largely echoes one the ALP moved in the Australian Senate last December. It was passed but the Liberals said no. It’s a start, but two weeks is barely time to scratch the surface, let alone have a meaningful debate in public and Parliament.
Again, Key brought his best bizarre logic to the fore when responding to Winston Peters’ parliamentary question demanding release of the text. ‘For a start-off, all members of the Trans-Pacific Partnership—all 12 countries—have agreed to keep negotiating text confidential. Secondly, our negotiators are negotiating in the best interests of New Zealand. You would not think, actually, that we would go out and there and want to give an advantage to the other countries we are negotiating with.’ Sorry – aren’t those other countries already privy to the text that we want to see?
A second own-goal that has undermined the government was their reliance on a Peterson Institute study to claim $5 billion gains to New Zealand from the deal. A report led by Geoff Bertram for the Sustainability Council debunked the methodology and blew the claims right out of the water. The Employers and Manufacturers replied with a load of nonsense that drew a strong rebuttal from the Council. The critique clearly had an impact. Key has since downgraded his claims to $2-3 billion gains – still shonky but shows how a finance dealer can manipulate the numbers …